Publications

Regional

A five-note series on the Pearl River Delta’s transition, the distance to a world-class city-region, innovative growth, urban competition and knowledge spillovers, and the econometrics of housing prices.

Trade

Four scenarios follow the stages of policy. Both economies lose; most Chinese industries are hit, with some import-substitution gains; trade is diverted toward Europe and Belt and Road economies.

Trade

A global CGE simulation of a further round of US–EU trade measures, tracing regional and sectoral effects, with a cautious note on capital-market implications.

Energy

Three notes on gas reform, coal capacity withdrawal, and the CGE implications of a higher world oil price for China’s macroeconomy and industries.

Trade

A quantitative assessment of 25% and 10% tariffs on steel and aluminium from Canada, Mexico, and the EU, set against unilateral measures and the risk of retaliation.

Trade

Under a long-horizon FTA and tariff-cut assumption between China and corridor economies, a short-run closure of the global dynamic model is used, together with a shock to trade costs from infrastructure.

Public finance

A CGE study of moving from three VAT bands toward two, with effects on the macroeconomy and on manufacturing and transport.

Public finance

A national CGE simulation of the announced tax and fee cuts, with long-run macro and industry effects.

Other

Public discussion often centres on robots and future work. The note reviews why many economists are less pessimistic about employment effects, and the implications for policy.

Energy

A static GTAP-E discussion of US withdrawal for own emissions, abatement costs, and GDP in major emitters, extended to Chinese coal output and neighbouring emissions.

Trade

A GTAP-based CGE analysis of the consequences for Canada of US withdrawal from the TPP.