按贸易政策阶段设置四个情景，进行短期与长期闭合。结果显示两国均受损，中国多数行业受负面冲击，部分进口替代刺激国内产出；外贸转向欧洲与一带一路经济体。
Trade
A quantitative account of the US–China trade war
Four scenarios follow the stages of policy. Both economies lose; most Chinese industries are hit, with some import-substitution gains; trade is diverted toward Europe and Belt and Road economies.
2018-08-01
The paper below is the original Chinese text.