Selected cases
The cases below show how the models are used on public questions in trade, energy, and regional policy.
Trade policy
A quantitative account of the US–China trade warFour scenarios follow the stages of policy. Both economies lose; most Chinese industries are hit, with some import-substitution gains; trade is diverted toward Europe and Belt and Road economies.
Integration
Brexit: a fracture in economic integration?The protracted exit path after the referendum, and the implications of broken integration under the November 2018 draft agreement. A companion note examines how unilateral liberalisation after exit might offset part of the loss.
Infrastructure and trade
Belt and Road infrastructure and trade policy in a CGE settingUnder a long-horizon FTA and tariff-cut assumption between China and corridor economies, a short-run closure of the global dynamic model is used, together with a shock to trade costs from infrastructure.
Energy
Notes on energy reformThree notes on gas reform, coal capacity withdrawal, and the CGE implications of a higher world oil price for China’s macroeconomy and industries.
Regional economy
Greater Bay Area notesA five-note series on the Pearl River Delta’s transition, the distance to a world-class city-region, innovative growth, urban competition and knowledge spillovers, and the econometrics of housing prices.
Tariffs
US steel and aluminium tariffsA quantitative assessment of 25% and 10% tariffs on steel and aluminium from Canada, Mexico, and the EU, set against unilateral measures and the risk of retaliation.
